Editorial - January/February 2000

By Mark Stover, Editor

 

Happy New Year, first of all!

 

2000 is somewhat of a milestone for us. It marks the 10th Year of Publication for Document Management Magazine, although our roots go back much further than that. Richard N. Stover, a renowned industry analyst, visionary and 1967 Computer Graphics Pioneer, started us out as a groundbreaking newsletter in 1987. Over the years we grew, and in 1991 became the four-color magazine that you've known so well. We went "On the Net" way back in 1995. Much has changed in the industry in just the last five years - countless companies and technologies have come and gone - but we're still here, and still independently run by the Enterprise Resources Management division of Pinnacle Peak Publishing, Ltd. This issue's cover features a photo of our longtime home, beautiful Pinnacle Peak in Scottsdale, Arizona. Yes, it's really tough living here, but somebody's got to do it!

With this new decade, we industry analysts are supposed to come up with predictions for the next ten years. I've done a lot of dumb things in my life, but I'm happy to say that I'm not nearly insane enough (yet) to attempt something so futile. So instead, how about if I take a tiny risk and provide some (somewhat obvious) predictions for the course of the year:

·        The buzzword of the year will be Application Service Provider (ASP). On the Web.

·        More and more applications will be provided as a free service on an Internet Web site.

·        Now that accountants and human resources people have acquired their systems and allayed their Y2K fears, more money will be freed up in organizations for the engineers. EDM/PDM and the large format imaging and reprographics markets will finally begin to take off.

·        Knowledge Management will continue to exist only in the eyes of some vendors.

·        Large trade shows will continue to shrink, replaced by Web information and small, highly focused local conferences. Unless maybe if it's in 'Vegas...

·        The expensive ERP business model will continue to fade. Few companies will want to pay big money for software and long, problematic implementations anymore (SAP, meet ASP).

·        Some governments will try to regulate and tax the Internet. For the most part, they will fail.

·        If it's not 100% Web-enabled, the EDM solution (and most any others) won't sell. Period.

We industry analysts are also expected to comment on the recent AOL acquisition of Time/Warner. My only comment is "Wow, a company full of fellow techno geeks just acquired the biggest media cartel in the world!" I did think, however, that it might be fun to pose some irrelevant and non-serious questions:

·        Will new cable/web consumers settle for being a number instead of a name (i.e., JSmith378108846100367@aol.com vs. JSmith@newCableISP.com)?

·        In the past, results from political polls of AOL users were almost always the exact opposite of results from CNN political polls. Will one of them change, or will they just cancel each other out?

·        Last year, AOL acquired Netscape. We vaguely remember them. To this day, AOL's software still uses the IE browser. Does this mean that Time may also slip away?

·        Many say wireless technologies are the next destination. Who will then acquire AOL - Motorola, Nokia, or Acme Satellite & Auto Emporium?

·        Was it merely a coincidence that just prior to the big announcement, Jane and Ted split up?

I get a kick out of the mainstream journalists that are predicting doom and gloom and the apocalypse over this. Bear in mind, most of them work for the biggest media cartel on the planet. We, who for years have studied and participated on the cutting edge of information technologies, know that things are always changing fast, and that change is constant. This is really just the tip of the iceberg. Let's see what direction the ultimate big boss of the planet, the consumer, goes. They always know what's best. Especially since all of our paychecks originate from them. As I've said before, this is a great and exciting time to be alive!

I'd like to close with some general comments for the new decade:

For the Individual:

Technology is rarely born of mediocrity. The best way to not only learn technology, but also to create technology, is to just go out there and do it!

For the Organization:

Never settle for mediocrity, or you risk some technology startup eating you for lunch!

Mark Stover can be contacted at docmanage@aol.com.